Lewis Hamilton: Mercedes driver’s F1 qualifying struggles analysed ahead of key Azerbaijan and Singapore challenges

Despite having 36 more pole positions than any other driver in the history of Formula 1, qualifying has undoubtedly been Lewis Hamilton’s Achilles heel this season.

The seven-time world champion is down 12-4 to team-mate George Russell in Qualifying, while the younger Mercedes driver also holds a 2-1 edge in Sprint Qualifying.

Russell is a formidable opponent for any driver over one lap, earning the nickname ‘Mr Saturday’ for his qualifying performances early in his career at Williams, but the swing from an 11-11 head-to-head score last season, to domination in 2024, is surprising.

Two wins in three races before the summer break showed that Hamilton’s race craft, in particular his ability to manage tyres over full distance, remains truly elite.

A 36-point lead over his team-mate in the drivers’ standings reflects Hamilton’s continued excellence on Sundays, although it must be noted that some bad luck for Russell has played a part.

Hamilton has 104 pole positions in F1 and has been capable of producing special laps throughout his historic career, but as he approaches the age of 40, it is fair to wonder if his speed over one lap is fading.

With two races upcoming in Azerbaijan and Singapore where qualifying is particularly important, the pressure is growing on Hamilton to prove he can still mix it with the best on a Saturday.

Hamilton’s staggering Monza admission

When there are suspicions an element of sporting superstar’s performance is on the decline, it would usually be the media who point it out.

Take, for example, continued discussion over whether Cristiano Ronaldo still possesses the attributes required to play international football for Portugal.

Somewhat surprisingly, in Hamilton’s case the most damning criticism has come from the man himself, as he appeared to finally boil over following Italian Grand Prix Qualifying.

Not for the first time this season, Hamilton had appeared to be in contention for pole throughout practice and even the early stages of qualifying, but in the crunch time of Q3 failed to put together a clean lap and ended up sixth on the grid.

His frustration was no doubt heightened by the fact he was outperformed by Russell, who took third despite having had limited practice time after Hamilton’s 2025 replacement Andrea Kimi Antonelli pranged his car during the weekend’s opening session.

Hamilton told Sky Sports F1: “I am furious, absolutely furious. I could have been on pole, at least on the front row. I just didn’t do the job at the end.

“No one to blame but myself. Qualifying has been my weakness for a minute now and I can’t figure it out.

“The car felt better than last race and the team deserve better. Maybe they will get that with Kimi.”

Continuing his quite staggering series of remarks, speaking to the written media moments later, he added: “I’m just not very good at qualifying, simple as.”

Is a technical issue hampering Hamilton?

So why is the sport’s greatest driver, at least according to the statistics, struggling?

Firstly, it’s important to acknowledge that Russell is clearly doing a phenomenal job. Even a below-par Hamilton is not easy to dominate, and the pressure Russell is applying to his team-mate with his consistency may be playing a part.

From a technical standpoint, the closest thing we’ve had to an explanation came from Mercedes technical director James Allison.

Speaking in June, at which point Russell had built an 8-1 qualifying advantage over Hamilton, Allison suggested the latest generation of F1 cars do not suit the latter’s driving style on a flying lap.

“Lewis has, not by accident, been the best qualifier in the history of the sport, because I think he’s been the best driver in the sport, but he’s struggling to make it stick this year by fine margins,” Allison said.

“I think, to a degree,” Allison said. “The current car-tyre combo, not just us, across the pit lane, it doesn’t like being hustled – you almost get the best lap times when you’re not trying.

“When the car is producing good laps, the drivers are almost like, ‘I wasn’t expecting that, I was almost cruising.’

“And when it’s qualifying and the pressure’s on and it’s time to deliver, I don’t think those are the circumstances that get the best from quite fussy tyres.”

If Allison’s suspicions are true, one can safely assume that he would have discussed them with Hamilton, and that the Brit would have surely tried to adjust his approach to qualifying.

This may be where Hamilton’s Monza frustration is coming from, that he has so far been unable to find a way to get the best out the W15 when it matters most.

Pressure only set to intensify

While Hamilton has been able to overcome his qualifying woes with brilliant drives on several occasions this season, such recoveries will be very difficult to pull off over the next two weekends.

Overtaking was near impossible last year in Baku, and while the DRS zone is likely to be lengthened to create more entertainment, it is still a circuit where making forward progress can be a major challenge.

For example, if a driver were to qualify lower down the field, there is the potential to get caught in a DRS train that could get make pulling off passes on the main straight very tough.

Passing at Baku might prove to be a relative breeze compared to Singapore, where even a huge pace advantage isn’t enough to guarantee clearing those ahead on track.

This was best evidenced in the thrilling stages of last year’s race as Ferrari’s Carlos Sainz held off Lando Norris and George Russell to win.

Hamilton will know that there is no room for error over the next two Saturdays, further ramping up the pressure of him to deliver.

Another factor that could soon begin to play on his mind is that his challenge won’t be easing next year, with his next team-mate Charles Leclerc considered by many to be F1’s fastest driver over one lap.

While being outqualified by a team-mate will no doubt dent Hamilton’s pride, the biggest concern for him will be not being able to take full advantage in the event Ferrari are able to provide him with a title-challenging car next season.

‘The characteristic of a champion’

It’s clear that the situation is causing some quite significant distress to Hamilton, but his current and future employers seem to be less concerned.

Reacting to Hamilton’s self-critique in Italy, Mercedes boss Toto Wolff insisted the comments were those of “a champion” and that the Brit continues to set a great example for Russell and Antonelli.

Wolff said: “I think the great characteristic of a champion is to first look at himself and say, ‘What did I do wrong?’

“And I think that’s what he’s doing. He’s trying to find where he can improve, what he could have done better and where he’s lost their performance.

“He’s been very strong, and was a role model for George, and even for Kimi. It’s something that is important for the team. But the greatest of all time are very critical.”

As for Ferrari team principal Fred Vasseur, the Frenchman said that he is not worried about Hamilton’s form given the race results the future Ferrari driver has been achieving.

“No because he won in Spa,” Vasseur said. “I will take the win at the end of the race more than the pole position.”

It would be foolish ever to count Hamilton out, but there is certainly doubt – most crucially from the man himself – as to whether he can regain the form that once saw him dominate Saturdays.

Formula 1 leaves mainland Europe for Baku and the Azerbaijan Grand Prix this weekend, live on Sky Sports F1. Stream every F1 race and more with a NOW Sports Month Membership – No contract, cancel anytime

Source link